Ravi Batra: Difference between revisions

In 1963, Batra met his mentor, P.R. Sarkar (1921&ndash;1990), also known as [[Shrii Shrii Anandamurti]] to disciples of the socio-spiritual movement [[Ananda Marga]] (Path of Bliss), and after establishing himself in his chosen field, he decided to branch out by contributing to his mentor's work.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.nytimes.com/1987/08/30/business/depression-guru-ravi-batra-economist-or-mystic-tune-in-around-1990-to-find-out.html?scp=3&sq=Ravi%20Batra&st=cse |title=DEPRESSION GURU: RAVI BATRA; Economist or Mystic? |publisher=New York Times |accessdate=2011-08-01 |date=1987-08-30 |first=Thomas C. |last=Hayes }}</ref> In 1978, he published a novel book ''[[:wikipedia:The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism|The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism: A New Study of History]]'', where he turned his gaze from theoretical economics to history. In the book Batra promoted the [[Law of Social Cycle|social cycle theory]] of his spiritual mentor, Sarkar, based on an analysis of four distinct [[:wikipedia:Social class|classes]] with different psychological preferences or endowments. At the same time, Batra has theorised that [[:wikipedia:economic inequality]] affects economic performance and social change.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/358815 |title=Regular economic cycles : money, inflation, regulation and depressions, Venus Books, 1985 |author=Ravi Batra|accessdate=October 13, 2011}}</ref> He popularised the concept of the "share of wealth held by richest [[:wikipedia:millionare|1%]]", as an indicator of inequality and an important determinant of depressions.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/06/books/best-sellers-from-1987-s-book-crop.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm|title=Best Sellers From 1987's Book Crop |accessdate=October 13, 2011|work=New York Times|first=Edwin|last=McDowell|date=1988-01-06}}</ref>

The main thesis of the book was that the age of [[Law of Social Cycle|acquisitors]], better known as [[:wikipedia:capitalism]], was soon to come to an end in the West. This dramatic change was to be followed by the downfall of the age of [[:wikipedia:commander|commanders]] in the [[:wikipedia:Soviet Union|Soviet Union]], more commonly known as [[:wikipedia:communism|communism]]. While his predictions for capitalism to collapse within a few decades due to rampant inequality and speculation have not come true, his prediction for the collapse of communism, due to inner stasis and oppression, arrived in 1990, sooner than expected. The key reason that capitalism, as a self-perpetuating social formation, was seen to be on an unsustainable path, was the relentless drive of acquisitors to acquire ever more capital. Over time, this activity was seen to gain momentum and result in financial [[:wikipedia:Stock market bubble|booms]] and [[:wikipedia:Stock market crash|busts]]. A [[:wikipedia:Great Depression|depression]] would then follow and as it came on top of extreme inequality it would quickly bring [[:wikipedia:wikt:chaos|social chaos]] and [[:wikipedia:revolt|revolt]]. As anarchy was not a normal state of affairs, the class of military leaders would step in the breech and reestablish [[:wikipedia:social order|order]] and thereby usher in a new age of "commanders". In this context, Batra reviews a prior such social change, which occurred two millennia ago, when the [[:wikipedia:Roman Republic|Roman Republic]] was transformed into the [[:wikipedia:Roman Empire|Roman Empire]]. At that time slave uprisings were common but were violently suppressed. This period became known as the [[:wikipedia:Servile Wars|Servile Wars]]. At the same time, the military was in ascendancy as the [[:wikipedia:Roman Army|Roman Army]] continued to expand the empire. The pivotal figure in the development was the military leader, [[:wikipedia:Julius Caesar|Julius Caesar]], who wrested control from the Senate by diluting its membership, but was in turn murdered by the disgruntled [[:wikipedia:Roman Senate|Senators]]. The military class, led by his adopted son [[:wikipedia:Augustus|Octavian]], cemented the new social order. Batra thinks such a scenario in the future will refocus the social motivity, away from acquisition of money to a mastery of technology and physical bravery including the conquest of [[:wikipedia:Outer space|space]], heralding a new age of commanders in the [[:wikipedia:Western world|West]]. These ideas contrast starkly with those of thinkers like [[:wikipedia:Francis Fukuyama|Francis Fukuyama]] who argues in ''[[:wikipedia:The End of History and the Last Man|The End of History and the Last Man]]'' that capitalism, as it is based on [[:wikipedia:democracy|democracy]] and [[:wikipedia:Freedom (political)|freedom]], represents the pinnacle of human social development. For Fukuyama, the collapse of Soviet Communism could have been inevitable, but not that of Capitalism.

{{main|[[:wikipedia:The Great Depression of 1990|The Great Depression of 1990]]}}

Ravi Batra is the author of six international bestsellers, two of which appeared on [[:wikipedia:The New York Times Best Seller list|''The New York Times'' list]].  

In 1980 he published ''Muslim Civilization and the Crisis in Iran'' where he predicted the fall of the Shah and the rise of a class of intellectuals, or Mullahs, followed by a drawn out war with Iraq. In 1984, he penned what was to become his first bestseller, first under the title ''Regular Cycles of Money, Inflation, Regulation and Depressions''. A central theme of this book was that the mal-distribution of wealth, which Batra found to be the cause of past episodes of financial speculative manias that were followed by a crash and depression. [[:wikipedia:Lester Thurow|Lester Thurow]] was so impressed that he wrote a preface stating the ideas were "novel and brilliant". This book was subsequently renamed as ''The Great Depression of 1990''. It entered the New York Times Best Seller list in the  Non-fiction category in early 1987 and reached #1 later that year.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/06/books/best-sellers-from-1987-s-book-crop.html?src=pm|title=Best Sellers From 1987's Book Crop|author=Edwin McDowell|publisher=New York Times|date=January 6, 1988|accessdate=January 10, 2012}}</ref>

Batra predicted a full scale depression in the USA in 1990; it did not happen.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-4.pdf|title=Now and Then: The Evolution of Loan Quality for U.S. Banks, Volume 9, Number 4|author=Kevin J. Stiroh and Christopher Metli|publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of New York|date=April 2003|accessdate=January 10, 2012}}</ref> Batra's reputation rose in Europe on account of his correct prediction for the downfall of communism when he was awarded the Medal of the [[:wikipedia:Italian Senate|Italian Senate]] in 1990. Batra continued to publish bestselling works in Japan with economic malaise lasting until the early 2000s. In the USA, however, his sales began to drop and his booming side-line career as a media commentator on matters economic and financial began to sour. In 1993, Batra received the [[:wikipedia:Ig Nobel Prize|Ig Nobel Prize]] in economics. Batra's views on capitalism have not been popular among mainstream economists, but these views may be changing in the wake of the [[:wikipedia:Late-2000s financial crisis|financial crisis]] in the USA and other developed economies.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://archive.fwweekly.com/content.asp?article=7369|title=Prophet of Boom (and Bust) - Now will they listen to Ravi Batra?|author=Kendall Anderson|publisher=Ft Worth Weekly|date=December 17, 2008|accessdate=January 10, 2012}}</ref>

In 1993, Batra published ''The Myth of Free Trade: The Pooring of America'' in which he argued that [[:wikipedia:free trade|free trade]] has enabled the rich to become richer but most people became poorer.  Batra predicted that NAFTA would create unemployment in Mexico  and lower wages in America. He urged the breakup of large firms, a raise in tariffs, and a drastic cut in defense spending to turn the country around.  In his view, domestic monopolies generate inequality and poverty and global trade damages the industrial base and the global environment.